AI Bibliography |
Wilner, A., & Babb, C. (2021). New technologies and deterrence: Artificial intelligence and adversarial behaviour. In NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 (pp. 401–417). TMC Asser Press, The Hague. |
Resource type: Book Article BibTeX citation key: Wilner2021 View all bibliographic details |
Categories: Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Science, Complexity Science, Computer Science, Decision Theory, Ethics, General, Geopolitical, Mathematics, Military Science Subcategories: Advanced wargaming, Augmented cognition, Autonomous systems, Behavioral analytics, Command and control, Cyber, Decision making, Forecasting, Game theory, Human decisionmaking, Machine learning, Psychology of human-AI interaction, Simulations, Situational cognition, Strategy Creators: Babb, Wilner Publisher: TMC Asser Press, The Hague Collection: NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 |
Attachments |
Abstract |
Offering a critical synthesis of extant insights into technological devel- opments in AI and their potential ramifications for international relations and deterrence postures, this chapter argues that AI risks influencing military deterrence and coercion in unique ways: it may alter cost-benefit calculations by removing the fog of war, by superficially imposing rationality on political decisions, and by diminishing the human cost of military engagement. It may recalibrate the balance between offensive and defensive measures, tipping the scales in favour of pre-emption, and undermine existing assumptions imbedded in both conventional and nuclear deterrence. AI might altogether remove human emotions and eliminate other biological limitations from the practice of coercion. It may provide users the ability to collect, synthesize, and act upon real-time intelligence from several dis- parate sources, augmenting the certainty and severity of punishment strategies, both in theatre and online, compressing the distance between intelligence, political decisions, and coercive action. As a result, AI may quicken the overall pace of action across all domains of coercion, in conflict, crisis, and war, and within the related subfields of national security, counterterrorism, counter-crime, and counter-espionage. |