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Alkire, B., Hanser, L. M., & Lingel, S. L. (2018). A wargame method for assessing risk and resilience of military command-and-control organizations. Rand. 
Resource type: Book
BibTeX citation key: Alkire2018a
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Categories: Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Science, Computer Science, Data Sciences, General, Geopolitical, Military Science
Subcategories: Advanced wargaming, Air Force, Autonomous systems, Big data, China, Cloud computing, Command and control, Cross-domain deterrence, Doctrine, Human decisionmaking, JADC2, Military research, Mosaic warfare, Networked forces, Simulations, Strategy, United States
Creators: Alkire, Hanser, Lingel
Publisher: Rand

Many recent wargames conducted by the joint community have examined alternative organizational structures for operational-level command and control (C2) in a scenario.However, wargames typically role-play and exercise the roles, responsibilities, and authorities of a prescribed C2 organizational structure in the scenario rather than compare and contrast the alternative structures themselves in a rigorous manner. This report provides a “how-to” guide for conducting a C2 risk and resilience tabletop exercise (TTX). The C2 risk and resilience TTX is a wargaming method developed by RAND Corporation researchers that can be used to compare and contrast alternative organizational structures for operational-level C2 in terms of associated risks to operational outcomes and of the organizational structures’ resilience to those risks. The method is an adaptation of the assumption-based planning methodology developed for the U.S. Army in the 1990s but conducted in a TTX format and using a retrospective futurology approach to elicit consensus from subject-matter experts. The steps involve preparing the materials, conducting a preparation session, evaluating risk and resilience metrics in a one- or two-day event involving 12 to 24 participants, and summarizing the results. This could be suitable for a multiday workshop conducted in parallel with and as part of a larger wargaming effort.

The research reported here was commissioned by Brig Gen Dirk D. Smith, Director of Air and Cyberspace Operations, Headquarters Pacific Air Forces and conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a broader, fiscal year 2016 project, “The Future of Command and Control of Joint Air Operations in the Pacific.”The research was conducted between October 2015 and August 2016 as a core-funded project. The report should be of interest to the wargaming community, personnel in the operations and plans division of Pacific Air Force and other major commands, personnel in the Air and Space Operations Center, and personnel involved in operational-level control of joint military operations.

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