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Wong, Y. H., Yurchak, J. M., Button, R. W., Frank, A., Laird, B., & Osoba, O. A., et al.. (2020). Deterrence in the age of thinking machines RAND Corporation Santa Monica. 
Resource type: Report/Documentation
BibTeX citation key: Wong2020
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Categories: Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Science, Computer Science, Data Sciences, Decision Theory, General, Geopolitical, Military Science, Nanotechnology
Subcategories: Advanced wargaming, Autonomous systems, China, Command and control, Cross-domain deterrence, Deep learning, Doctrine, Human decisionmaking, JADC2, Japan, Machine intelligence, Military research, Psychology of human-AI interaction, Strategy, United States
Creators: Bae, Button, Frank, Harris, Laird, Osoba, Steeb, Wong, Yurchak
Publisher: RAND Corporation Santa Monica
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Abstract
We expect artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems to significantly change the future battlefield. Militaries around the world are incorporating AI and autonomy into their organizational processes, command and control systems, logistics systems, and, of course, weapon systems themselves—with an aim toward leveraging current developments from the commercial world. As AI and autonomy proliferate on the battlefield, an important question arises: How might deterrence be affected by the proliferation of AI and autonomous systems? Up to this point, deterrence has primarily involved humans attempting to affect the decision calculus and perceptions of other humans. But what happens when decisionmaking processes are no longer fully under the control of humans? In this report, we lay out some initial considerations and present ideas for how deterrence could change in the age of AI and autonomy.
  
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