Ai and the military: Forever altering strategic stability. (2019). Technology for Global Security.
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Abstract
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The purpose of this paper is to begin to contribute to the growing body of research and analysis, while calibrating the potential risks and rewards of military applications of AI technologies and determining which issues demand further research - and action. To do so, this paper explores the following questions: 1. Which technologies have potential near-term military applications, and which do not? 2. Of those, which are potentially consequential for strategic stability? How, and why? How could AI alter the fundamental calculus of deterrence? 3. How could AI-assisted military platforms affect regional stability, and what is the connection between regional stability and strategic deterrence? 4. How will global competition in applying AI to military missions affect strategic stability? Should we be concerned about an "AI arms race"? 5. What are the risks of unintended consequences and strategic surprise driven by AI? This paper frames large questions and provides first-order level arguments about them. It is intended to begin a conversation but not to delve systematically into any one specific aspect.
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